Depression indicator meter: Updated March 20th 2008

The index is at -37
When the index is at -200 we are in a great depression.

Index rises to -37
5/2/2008 Slight rise in GDP and unemployment number goes down.
4/14/2008 Corporate profits edging down, along with consumer confidence.
4/03/2008 Unemployment rises slightly as 80,000 lose jobs.
3/26/2008 Durable goods drop and consumer confidence drops again.
3/24/2008  Index rises to -35 from -37. Sales of pre-existing homes unexpectedly rise.
3/20/2008 Update due to manufacturing index falling for a fifth straight month.

The meter indicates how likely we are to enter a recession, depression, or to experience economic growth.  The meter is based on 20 economic factors.  Some of these factors change (The Sub-Prime mortgage crisis).  They are weighted based on their level and trend during previous recessions, and the great depression.
Currently GDP is growing ever so slightly, international trade is up, and U.S. exports are up.  The average hours worked is stable and bank credit, despite the recent sub-prime woes appears to be somewhat stable. These offset the other factors, almost all of which are down. As new information is updated (unemployment figures, the stock market, interest rates, etc.) the needle moves.

Current indicators

Housing crisis

Stock market

Fed posture

Unemployment rate

Price of Oil

Price of Gold

Consumer confidence

Banks failing

New housing starts

Quarterly services

Manufacturing shipments/orders

GDP

Business investment

Productivity

Consumer credit

International trade

Bank credit (Total commercial)

Inflation

Average weekly hours worked

corporate profits

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