10 Things the next president must understand.
2008 is the watershed year in twenty-first century America. There are ten things the next president must clearly understand, and address.
The fiscal challenge facing our nation is not without historical precedent. While it is enormous in scope, it is not a complex issue. We have promised to pay tens of trillions of dollars to retiring baby boomers and the first bill became due January 1st of 2008.
Now is the time for our country to come together. Social issues not related to the long term solvency of our nation must be put on the back burner. Else neither side will live to fight another day. None of the candidates currently running for office has expressed even a rudimentary knowledge of the problem, it is time we put them to the test.
- The retiring baby-boomers will change everything about the way government spends money. They have been promised Social Security and Medicare, and they will demand these programs be funded. They will make their voices clearly heard at the ballot box.
- Illegal immigration is not a result of lower wages, or even widespread labor shortages. It is a result of excessive regulatory burden on small business. Amnesty will make the problems facing our nation much worse. When an illegal immigrant becomes a citizen, he becomes a much less desirable employee.
- There is no near term solution to our dependence on oil. If domestic oil production does not rise, our continued entanglement in the foreign affairs of The Middle East is guaranteed.
- Global warming must continue to be studied, but hysterical and simplistic solutions will not work. Now is not the time to cut carbon emissions. This will completely wreck our economy because no other "emissions" will power your car, your home, or any other aspect of the economy.
- The next president must understand "Balance of Power" diplomacy. This dictates that some of our potential enemies become stronger, and we must practice dollar diplomacy (which is more cost effective than war) to strengthen some of our allies. There is no logical path for wide spread use of our military across the globe. The money is not available. Military spending will need to be completely refocused to "defensive needs".
- To grow our economy anywhere near the level required to pay the bills that are coming due, we must de-regulate business at many levels. This will cause anecdotal suffering, but the benefit to the middle class far outweighs potential downside. Historically, and without fail, nothing else has worked.
- We must maintain a presence in Iraq (see number 5). However, this presence and the associated cost must fall. A small and rapidly mobile force will be needed to maintain the balance of power in the region for the foreseeable future. This will necessitate a shift in the way battles are fought, with less emphasis placed on avoiding collateral damage. This is nothing new, and has historically lowered the level of violence in troubled nations.
- The consumer dynamic will shift from spending based on disposable income, to saving. This will have a negative effect on many segments of our economy. In particular, those businesses that have catered to the baby boomers and luxury items will shrink mightily. Businesses fail, and these must not be "propped up" through misguided tax policy.
- The next president must have a strong base of understanding of international trade, and the dangers of protectionist trade policies to the United States economy. The next president must also negotiate trade deals that are in the best interest of the United States long term economic health. Accomplishing this will require us to further deregulate, and lower the tax burden on manufacturing.
- Social unrest will become more widespread as programs designed to help the poor are reduced (but not eliminated). This is unavoidable and must be addressed with sober, intelligent financial policy. The social safety net for the poor must be maintained, and it must become much more efficient. If direct welfare and social security payments are not cut by 5% over the next two years, they will be cut by more than 40% within ten years. The simple math (number of baby boomers multiplied by the cost of Social Security, Medicare and the prescription drug benefit) dictate that this is a mathematical proof and not a theory or suggestion. There is no realistic mathematical formula for increasing government
spending on new programs without bankrupting the nation.
The fiscal challenge facing our nation is not without historical precedent. While it is enormous in scope, it is not a complex issue. We have promised to pay tens of trillions of dollars to retiring baby boomers and the first bill became due January 1st of 2008.
Now is the time for our country to come together. Social issues not related to the long term solvency of our nation must be put on the back burner. Else neither side will live to fight another day. None of the candidates currently running for office has expressed even a rudimentary knowledge of the problem, it is time we put them to the test.




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