New U4prez algorithm indicates how well you would do in a real campaign.

U4prez has become a hotbed of political debate. But the appeal to the site for many continues to be running a virtual campaign for president.  In our 2007 election cycle we used a simple rating system to determine the best candidates.  Those who received the highest rating were given a chance to run in monthly "primaries" to narrow down the field for the end of the year election.

The platform worked well for getting out a candidate's message, and allowed potential candidates to float trial balloons as they worked the on-line campaign trail.  As more and more politicians embrace the web to buttress real campaigns we decided several months ago that we needed a way to more accurately predict our virtual candidates chances of success in a real campaign. 

To accomplish this we looked at past election cycles and analyzed the contributing factors to a candidates success in the real world.    We also desired to pull in to the algorithm some of the aspects of campaigning on the web. 

It is our belief that at some point in the very near future, a viable presidential candidate will emerge solely from a campaign mounted on the web.

The question is: What will that candidate need to do to transfer web success, to real world success?

On the web, this is fairly easy. A candidate will need visitors to his platform.  The more eyes that see his message, the better his chance of building support. In the real world, there are two primary factors to consider.  The first is simply incumbency.  There is no better indicator of success in  congress.  The problem is of course to be an incumbent you first must get elected.  The best indicator of first time election success, is money. With money, the candidate has a better chance of getting his message out.

Enter Candidate Rank or "CR"
Candidate Rank is an algorithm that evaluates the virtual campaign on a much broader scope.  Ratings from other site members still figure in the equation, but other factors now contribute to the bottom line score.   To account for incumbency we increase a candidates score who has been on the site and received a large number of ratings.  It doesn't matter what these ratings are, the fact that he has been around for a few months, or years, increases his chances of getting elected. 
We also find that candidates who "press the flesh" and engage the voters will do well in a real world campaign. To measure this, we count the number of times a candidate has commented to other candidates platforms, and to the caucus platforms.  We take this one step further and give points for the unique nature of the comments.
And now we come to the issue of money.  We've tied this issue in with the number of supporters a candidate has.  Supporters=Money.  We take this a step further by increasing candidate rank not just on supporters, but on the CR level of those that are supporting you.  If your campaign has 300 supporters all with CR1, you'll get a bump in your CR. If your campaign has 300 supporters, and many of them have CR3, all the way up to CR10, you'll get a much bigger bump.  This logic parrots the endorsements that are so heartily pursued by real candidates.  As the primary season, and the general election get closer, these endorsements from governors, senators, or other community leaders become more valuable. In the U4prez world, these endorsements come in the form of supporters to your site, with high CR. 

Here's the rub.  Just like in the real world, politicians can be fickle.  If a few high CR candidates leave your campaign, your CR, and thus your score will go down.  This also keeps you from going off the deep end with wild ideas outside the mainstream of your party, or from becoming too confrontational with your supporters.    A mass exodus of supporters to  your campaign, can knock you way down in the polls (list of top candidates).

Perhaps the most compelling piece of the algorithm is failure to engage penalty.  We want the site to be a place where you can talk politics, run your virtual campaign, and engage in the debate. But we also want every site member to enjoy the experience.  If you create a platform, and someone is constantly dogging your campaign with confrontational comments, you can block that person.  After a certain number of blocks, a filter kicks in to look at who you are blocking.  If you are blocking dozens of candidates with high CR,  your score can go down.  It's looked at as an indication of unwillingness to address the challenges to your message.

You can think of it like this.  A presidential candidate on the campaign trail may get heckled by a few lone agitators.  Those agitators can be barred entrance from that candidate's events.  But if the candidate refuses to address anti-war demonstrators, fair-tax proponents, or a large environmentalist group, the candidate is refusing to engage in the debate, and would lose support among the American people.  The same thing happens at U4prez. 

A campaign at U4prez.com is much like a campaign in the real world. 
It is a constant walk on the tight rope with voters on either side trying to knock you off.  You must appeal to your base (by throwing out some red meat), while at the same time try to engage the broad middle, and undecided voters. Make the mistake of appealing to a narrowly focused constituency and while your rating may go up, you overall score can and will go down. 

The CR algorithm took months to create, and will be fine tuned from time to time to address growth in the site.  Because of the investment, and to avoid manipulation we don't divulge the entire process. But we can tell you in order to be successful on the site, you'll need to run your campaign the same way those in the real world run theirs.

We also believe that this new algorithm will offer the U4prez candidate a much more tangible experience, and a fair and honest indication of the virtual candidates success, in real world politics.

The new U4prez site is scheduled to roll out Monday October 29th.