If Fred Thompson is going to be the next president, he's going to have to look and act like a twenty-first century president. So far, he's on the right track.
Perhaps the question is better phrased, "Can Fred Thompson lose?"  It may seem a bit premature to make such a statement, but Senator Thompson has a lot going for him. His negatives are very low, his record appeals to the conservative base, and among the current field of Republican candidates, no one  is breaking away from the pack.
The media have been in overdrive trying to find a weakness.  To say they've come up short is an understatement.  Let's look at the negatives first.

The best the Washington Post could come up with was a sophomoric piece by Monica Hesse on the name Fred.  If you haven't read this little gem of journalistic art you're in for a real treat. I've read better articles in sorority news letters. If you can muddle through it, the author's point is that the name Fred denotes idiocy. 

The press has also made some noise about "campaign staff" problems, and some have indicated this is going to hurt Thompson's campaign.  In reality it was a stroke of genius.  B
efore he even announced, Thompson made moves to get the right team together.  The distraction may have been more of an issue in December, but it's already behind him.

The other issue is of course his work as a lobbyist.  This may provide fodder for the press, but doesn't help his opponents at all.  In Washington D.C. even the bicycle messangers are lobbyist.  It's a job, it can pay well, but in Thompson's case it doesn't look like much on the surface. If we dig a little deeper we can see an area where it will certainly cost him votes.   He is going to lose votes among the ardent pro-lifers. His lobbying for Haitian president Aristide just isn't going to have legs.  It's not that most Americans don't know who Aristide was, they just don't care.

Discounting the negatives, a candidate still has to generate some positive support.  I think Thompson is off to a good start with his appearance on Leno. The first few minutes, he was clearly a little nervous.  He kept slapping his right leg with his hand, and the microphone picked it up like it was a skin on skin slap.  He  cleared his throat repeatedly, which was also a little distracting.  When he got in to some of the issues, like Iran, you could see him visibly calm down, and talk through the issue. Contrast this with many of the other candidates, both Republican and Democrat, and you begin to see where his strength really lies.


Step 1: Presentation.
Where most candidates sound scripted, or fumble for answers, Thompson comes across as thoughtful and intelligent.
The fluidity and presentation of the response is just as important as the answer itself.  Bill Clinton was a master at this.  Consider the old "I feel your pain line."  This was not only a stupid statement to make, it could have been disastrous.  There is no way you can know what it is like to walk in another persons shoes.  But Clinton was so quick with the response, and it was so well delivered that it actually won him points.
Answering a question on the spot is difficult even if you have a complete mastery of the subject matter.  When you only have a vague awareness of an issue,  the intelligent respondant must stop and think for a second before plowing forward. Al Gore tried to pull this off, but his words seemed to get ahead of his brain, and he ended up digging holes for himself.  Thompson does pull it off.  And I don't think he's afraid to say, "I don't know." 

For Thompson to win, he's going to have to keep his presentation calm, friendly, and confident.  To do that, he's going to have to keep a good distance between himself, and his advisors.  What Fred Thompson needs is not so much a campaign manager, as a campaign "project" manager.  Someone to keep the trains running on time, without trying to change the candidates message or demeanor every other week.  Trust builds from consistency.  When George W. Bush started listening to his handlers, he went from folksy, down home cowboy sage, to another politician who isn't very well spoken or articulate.  Bill Clinton always came across as the back slapping used car salesmen, but dammit, the guy was consistent.  You felt like you knew what you were getting.  Thompson comes across as presidential.  Someone who was supposed to be the president, and has finally conceded to go ahead and do the job. 

Step 2: Clear Solutions
There are no more Lincoln-Douglas style debates.  A candidate has to get his message out in other ways. And in this age of 60 second attention span, it's going to be an uphill climb. The good news is, every candidate has the same problem.  The approach the candidates are taking is also similar, they are using the web to get the message out.  But the message itself, must fit the audience.  Let us look at the difference in web sites between Fred Thompson, and Rudy Giuliani.

When I go to a candidates web site, I want answers, and I want them now.  On Fred Thompsons web site is a link at the top that says principles, underneath that, one word: Federalism.  On the page you can watch a video, or you can look at this little nugget just to the right of the main text.
Before anything else, folks in Washington ought to be asking first and foremost, “Should government be doing this? And if so, then at what level of government?” But they don’t.
- Fred Thompson

On Rudy's page we are also treated to a video.  Rudy's 12 committments to America. Each of these committments is also explained in text underneath the video.  It's 2007, no one wants to listen to 12 committments, narrow it down for me.  But it gets worse. These committments aren't really committments at all.  They are vague ideas of direction.  The very first committment is "Fiscal Discipline".  How he will accomplish this, we have no idea.  Contrast that with Fred, "Should the Federal Government be doing this?".
Fred Thompson is clear concise and to the point. Rudy Giuliani, and in all fairness every other website is the same, gives you a political soundbite. 

A clear solution is not just a political soundbite.  It's ok to be a soundbite, but it better be a thesis statement.  For Thompson to win, he needs to keep these clear solutions front and center.  Put the detail after the soundbite, so I can pick out the issues that most concern me, but the soundbite better say something other than, "I believe the security of America is very important.".  The bullshit train has left the station. We've all had quite enough of that over the  last 20 years.  You've got gigabytes of storage, and nearly unlimited bandwidth, I've got very little time right now, and plenty of time to spend later on what I deem important, get it right, or say good night.

Step 3: Understand what the American voter really wants.
There have been nearly a half million comments  placed on U4prez.com.  If I have learned only one thing from this site, it's what the American voters want.  The one defining characteristic of Democrats, Repbulicans and Indpendents.  They want to be left alone.  Let me give you a couple of examples: Everyone complains about taxes, but when you listen a little deeper most are actually complaining about the IRS.  They just don't want an IRS auditor knocking on the door threatening their livelihoods. Another one is Global warming.  No one is "pro" global warming.  The American voter wants the facts, and then some guidelines or suggestions on how we can help. What we don't want is some new government agency watching us mow our lawns, gas up our cars, or checking to see what the thermostat is set at.  And we really don't want someone in our face, lecturing us, while flying around in a jet that puts out in a one hour trip more pollution than most of us average Joes can create in a month.  The Democrats are the same way. The pro choice group is not pro abortion. They just don't want to be lectured to.  They see it as an individual decision.  The same is true of the legalize marijuana crowd. Many probably don't even smoke it, but they want to be left alone. Navigating this territory is a touchy issue. Health care is an area where I think most of us feel we could use a little help. But a solution that limits our freedoms, inundates us with paperwork, and otherwise makes going to the doctor an even more miserable trip, isn't going to fly. For Fred to win, he's going to have to filter his platform through the eyes of the average Joe, and not the special interest groups.  The statement "Should the Federal Government be doing this?" will need an addendum.  "If the federal government is doing this, is it to intrusive?" 

Step 4: Stay out of the mud slinging
I don't know why every candidate falls in to this trap.  It invariably backfires. The simplest way to avoid it is to stay out of it in the first place. When attacked, don't respond. If you must respond, anwser the attack, and don't counter attack. Democrats and Republicans alike are sick of the unrelenting attacks on each other.  We provide you your employment, not your opponent.

My Prediction?
If Thompson stays focused on a core set of issues, keeps out of the mud, and comminicates effectively, he wins the nomination.
If the race comes down to Fred Thompson and Hillary Clinton, Thompson wins in a landslide, and, boldest of predictions, wins California.
If he listens to too many advisors, and melds with the other candidates (as opposed to keeping his distance), he still has a great shot at winning the nomination, but could lose in the general election against a moderate southern Democrat.  Our latest web project is a plastic sign letters company.

Eric Gurr
U4prez.com